In a typical solar power purchase agreement (PPA), a community hosts solar PV on public rooftops or land and enters into a long-term contract for the purchase of electricity from the PV system(s). This third-party ownership model is the most common way in which Massachusetts communities procure solar PV systems (as opposed to outright ownership, for example). While 2010 and 2011 saw a significant number of public solar PPA projects in the state, interest from solar developers has slowed in recent months. As a result, those communities just releasing RFPs for their solar project or reviewing bids from a recent solicitation may not see as many responses or as attractive prices as their predecessors, leaving many to wonder –what is going on in the Massachusetts community solar market?
Concern over Renewable Energy Incentives
Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs) generated by PV systems (which communities typically give over to solar developers in PPAs) are an important revenue stream in a developer’s financial model for a PV project. Due to recent analyses of and concerns about the state’s SREC market, some developers are struggling to secure SREC contracts at sufficient prices. Without adequate SREC contracts, developers cannot offer attractive PPA rates to communities. Many solar developers active in Massachusetts have slowed or stopped activity in the state.
What does that mean for my community’s hopes for a solar PPA project?
Some developers and analysts believe that Massachusetts SREC prices will recover in six to nine months and that the pace of development will pick up again at this time. In the interim, communities may not see as much interest from the development community or receive attractive PPA rates (e.g., less than 10 cents) on proposed projects.
In order to take advantage of federal incentives that apply to solar projects developed in 2012, community solar project teams should use this period to prepare for a summer 2012 RFP (or RFQ) release, should the SREC market turn around at that time. Proactive teams can use online tools such as the National Renewable Energy Lab’s In My Backyard tool or PVWatts for preliminary resource assessments and to narrow down potential project sites. Using the results of these analyses, as well as details about the sites, solar project teams should begin preparing language for a RFP or RFQ. If more detailed site assessments are conducted, finding should also be included in the RFP.
If and when Massachusetts SREC market projections improve, the most proactive project teams will be first in line to do business with an eager solar industry.
What if we are currently negotiating a solar PPA?
Local officials and staff in Massachusetts are constantly contacted by interested solar developers. If your community is executing a PPA project at this time, be sure to get as much information as possible as possible about the SREC assumptions used in the developer’s financial model for your project. If a developer assumes more than $285 per megawatt-hour (28.5 cents per kilowatt-hour) for 10 years worth of SRECs, tread cautiously. Make sure that your PPA does not contain, for example, a “Change in Law” provision that allows the developer to renegotiate the PPA price with you during the contract term if their SREC assumptions do not hold (e.g., if the assumptions about SRECs used to price your project were out of date or overly optimistic). Also, if the solar developer will use SREC brokers to sell the SRECs from your project, encourage them to get regular updates from their brokers on available SREC contracts.
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